Sometime back in one of the discussions groups that I am member of we had some very interesting discussions on the proposed Expressway project in Kerala, India. This summarised version has been posted on the website of Roads & Bridges Development Corporation of Kerala. This is a long post – and is a collection of emails passed between the members of the group. And the oldest message is on top – so there is continuity for reading purposes. Thanks to Simon Sam for compiling this.

Hi,

I just browsed through the Kerala Expressway web site http://rbdck.com/ker_exp/default.htm. They have done a great work. The proposal is at par with road systems in developed countries like UK. I currently work in UK as an engineer. It’s a great feeling to think that I would be able to travel 100 km in an hour through Kerala in future. It is amazing!! But may be little over optimistic if the Government is not fully dedicated to this project. It will certainly be the foundation for the most desired new development culture of the state.

I think Mr. A. K. Antoney with his clean image is the right person to launch such a mega project where crores and crores of rupees are to be spent. The team of the Expressway with young visionary Mr. Muneer and the go-getter Mr. V J Kurian could definitely make the dream a reality.

Best regards,
Simon Sam simonsamko@yahoo.co.in

I wanted to react to Mr.Simon immediately but as I had some other engagements it was delayed. I am giving below some apprehensions on the project.

1. Kerala is a densly populated state. in other states like TN, AP or UP we can see vast areas of land without any trace of human settlement, but not anywhere in Kerala.The Express Highway , a long platform 7 mts above ground with 100mtwidth and 507 km length will divide the state into two, no doubt. A common man with his land getting cut into 2 by the EH or who has his brother or father who was residing at his neighborhood will have to travel half a km towards the crossing and same distance back to go there. It is the case with lakhs and lakhs of people, including small school children going to schools.

2.To make the giant platform enormous quantity of earth sand and granite will be required. Keala is already loosing its hillocks and slopes due to the construction hysteria now and from where this much material will be taken?

3. A large area of residential, plantation and agricultural lands will have to be acquired. Where will the gov. provide substitute land?

4.Kerala is a land of numerous small streams and a 41 rivers. The EH will block most of the streams or divert them, leading to a big environmental disaster.

5.The cost of the EH is said to be Rs.6400 cr. A company will be formed with Rs.692cr from gov, 692cr by a private partner and it will raise Rs3200cr from financial institutions.Rs.2930cr is to be collected as levy on petrol and diesel for a period of 10 yrs. A private bus operator will have to shed Rs. 2,31000 as levy in 10yrs at a rate just 70 lt of diesel per day for say 330 days a year and this poor man will never be using the EH. and an autorikshaw man will spend Rs.16500 !!The same is the case with almost all Keralites . The funny part is that the entrepreneur who spends Rs692 cr will be the proud owner of an asset of Rs.64000 !

6. Now look at the accident history. In 2000- 2001 there were 37252 road accidents in Kerala, injuring 48967people and killing 2730. Out of these accidents only 9 accidents were due to bad road condition.36712 were due to fault of the driver which cannot be corrected by a new road. Most of these accidents ,10451nos(28.04%) were caused by2wheelers, 7161(19.22%) by autorikshaws, 4782(12.84%)by private buses. None of these categories will ever enter the EH. That means the EH will not reduce accidents, but they only add to it by causing a large no. of tyre burst accidents.

7. They claim that 507 km can be covered in 5 hrs time, ie. a car can reach TVM from Kasargod in 5 hrs. How many of the 3+Crore Keralites will have that necessity? Extremely negligible percentage. And for those people’s sake enormous wealth of the state is to be plundered. Even the foreign tourists will not find use of it as they come to see the length and breadth of Kerala. For that cross traveling is the main need.

8.Kerala has now about 4km. of road per sq.km, which is second to Delhi, as the project says. But the national average road availability is only 0.7km. per sq.km. So the need of the state is to develop the existing national highways and state highways and also to develop the entire cross road network. We are not eager in beating Delhi. An expenditure much less of the estimate can make travel much better. Railways also should be improved much. It may be noted that the fuel requirement for rail is 9 times lesser than road and still our people are interested in developing road traffic at the cost of rail. The heavy burden of petroleum on our national exchequer is also to be considered. It is the interest of diesel-Vehicle lobby and not national interest.

9. There was initially another argument. Cars can travel at 100km/hr speed and this will minimize fuel consumption!. Most of the cars will have best fuel efficiency at 55 -60 km speed and increasing speed will increase fuel consumption in exponentials.

The project is only a ploy to amass wealth by the polititian-burocrat-contractor lobby and not in the interest of the state. I request all the participants of this forum to write to the CM and the Public Works Minister to abandon the project forthright in the better interest of the people and the state.

Regards,
Gopinathan G

I do not agree with your views on the matter. It is said that already, China is powering the Global Economic revival.By the year 2015 it is expected that India will join hands & become a major economic Engine in Asia. A large part of those developments is going to take place in the Southern States of India except Kerala.

If we want our children to have any chance of working in our State, we should create an ambiance where these developments will trickle down to our State also. The key to such Development is ‘Infrastructure, Good Governance & a sound PR campaign to erase the militant labour image”. I believe ‘Kerala Express way is one such project, despite all the criticisms leveled against it. We should support such initiatives and encourage private investors who are willing to risk millions of their wealth in Kerala. They really have many alternatives open to them…Of course they are doing it for profits after …. years. But profit is not a four letter word anymore.
K.G.Mohan Kuwait

Thank you very much for your detailed excellent comments on the Expressway project. But here in USA studies have established that more roads do not solve traffic congestion problems. Only reprioritation of road use, alternate transportations like rail, bicycle, footpath, bus services, could help more congestion. Singapore has frozen the total number of cars for the last 10 years or more. France does not allow any tampering with streets except what they did in Paris, but during peak hours private cars are not allowed in many cities giving priority for mass transportation, pedal bicycle, walkways. like here in NJ recently. The planned grand Expressway from London to Scotland had been abandoned as people protested at the beginning of work saying,” Only over our dead bodies".

I fully agree with what Gopinathan and Kuruvilla have written. In many matters, as in this case, we have failed to learn from the history of the developed countries and we are just following the same path. Moreover, we also seem to want to copy the same things, thinking that that is what development means, whether we need it or not. We have to move out of this mindset and look at our problems from our own perspective.

Hope you will send a full write-up to the English and malayalam dailies
and weeklies and continue to champion the cause of mass transportation, footpaths, bicycle paths to keep the people and the environment healthy.
V. Sasi Kumar. vsasi@vsnl.com

I can very well understand the apprehensions of Mr. G. Gopinath. But almost all of his apprehensions are answered in the FAQ in http://rbdck.com/ker_exp/default.htm Walking a maximum distance of 250 m to cross the expressway may not be as cumbersome as pointed out. In fact the 600 km long Railways from north to south have only about 450 Railway crossings all along. But nobody is feeling it as a great wall? If the thought of Mr. Mohan is stretched little more, at least 50% of the proposed bridges along the expressway can be constructed as regulator cum bridges and can be worth fully used to divert the rain water which otherwise will reach Arabian Sea within 24 hours.

Regarding the reason for accident, you know police case records always will include a standard phrase rash and negligent driving. Rational analysis of the cause of accident is not a policemen’s duty. So the statistics is not much relevant.

Necessity of such projects should not be evaluated with requirement of the hour. Even though the time is not valuable for the time being, at least for the coming generation time might be valuable.

Road density (length of road /sqkm) is not a proper indicator of road system efficiency. Average speed attainable is a more appropriate indicator, which is much lower than desirable in kerala.

I think the views of Mohan K.G" <k_g_mohan@hotmail.com is very valid in this subject. Suppose the 25 million jobs abroad is vanished in some time, what kerala will do to make up the 30% of its GDP? We should embark on some long-term projects that will gradually change Kerala in to a constructive state. I strongly believe Expressway is one such project.

I think we need not conclude that Keralites canot do anything without corruption. Cochin International Airport one such good example where completed a project in schedule and without any corruption

With regards,
Simon Sam: simonsamko@yahoo.co.uk

While I haven’t been able to look into the details of the project, the discussions here I feel are off the point – perhaps I miss the point of this discussion group. Instead of discussing the merits/demerits of having such a project, most of the discussions seems to revolve around corruption and politics.

Development of infrastructure is essential for any kind of development. Yes it is true that buidling roads alone will not help, but not building good roads will not help either. During my visits of late, I was pleasantly surprised to see how much better our roads have become – but of course I find it even more scary to travel by road looking at the no. of accidents that I see myself during a short trip from say Kochi to Palakkad! Yes buidling a good system of road will certainly affect the environment but then we as humans have anyway reached a stage of no return. Its not feasible to go back to state where the country is full of forests and people walk long distances. That’s not even a probable wishful thinking!

We have to have good infrastructure for transportation. Good roads and railway. And government – whichever – left, right or centre will need to sternly implement appropriate projects (considering the fact that there will be enormous opposition from those who will be directly affected by acquisition or by those who wouldn’t get projects and so on….!)

I sincerely hope that groups such as these contribute positive/constructive criticism rather than political criticism. And if anyone thinks that any politician, whatever colour will be able to carry forward this project without any corruption at any levels will be thinking rather absurdly I am afraid.

Regards,
Pramod: pamod@hispeed.ch

There have been many responses to the mail on Kerala Expressway, and the net result seems to be that there are two viewpoints: One that the expenditure on this is a waste and the project could lead to problems. The other is that such an expressway would add to the infrastructure and lead to the development of the state, at least to provide employment to our people. Let us examine this claim.

An expressway would certainly add to the infrastructure. It would also allow people and goods to be transported very fast from one end of the state to the other. Let us look at what priority such a project should get. As was mentioned in the list, the state has a reasonably good network of roads, and the different areas are much better connected than in many other states. But the roads are, in general, in bad to very bad condition at least three quarters of the time. This condition is said to be due to the lack of funds for maintenance. The new Expressway only takes away some more money from whatever is available.

That way, the condition of the rest of the roads could only worsen.

Their condition is certainly not going to improve because of the new Expressway.

Let us examine whether there are complaints about the lack of roads for people (like tourists, for instance) to travel or for goods to be carried. I am yet to come across any such complaints. The complaints have often been about the condition of the roads, and not about the lack of roads.

The website http://rbdck.com/ker_exp/ gives a lot of information on the project, but not any explanation about how the Expressway is to help in the development of the state. The growth projected there is very superficial (for instance, "It promotes and guides new growth patterns and strategies; promotes, provides and enables access to economic and social infrastructure; and leads to balanced sustainable development of the state") and would fit any road project anywhere in the world. This would be true even if you build a new road in one of the towns or villages. Have all the roads in Kerala failed to provide these? This is what the website has to say about the development potential of the expressway: "Proposed HSC is not just a transport corridor but it is envisaged as a major opening for sustained socio-economic development for the entire state of Kerala. HSC is expected to have many direct and indirect impacts on the state economy. As HSC is access controlled, development will not spread along the sides of the corridor, but will be at predetermined interchange locations, leading to the development of new townships. Activities recommended in the Development Centers are Tourism infrastructure, Residential complexes, Warehouses and Markets, IT related infrastructure, Educational Institutions, Traditional Medicinal Centres, Special Economic Zones and Industrial Estates etc."

It fails to explain how this road is going to support sustainable development. On the other hand, it does say that development will be confined to the "predetermined interchange locations". Naturally, such locations will be close to major towns or cities and such junctions will become centres of activity. This is true of any road. Most interestingly, they themselves do not say anything about anything new taking place, only the kind of development that has been going on in the state till now. I shall say something about IT later. Education is becoming big business and it will continue to grow in quantity at the cost of quality, at least for some more time now. Kerala has the best centres in traditional medicine (a pseudonym for Ayurvedam) and this road is not going to add much to it. We know what happens to special economic zones and industrial estates. Has there been any study about why many of the industrial estates failed and has anyone tried to sort out the problems identified? Why not spend some time doing such exercises?

The website provides a number of analyses, including economic, financial, and so on. But no environmental impact assessment. How come such a major project can be undertaken without an EIA? Would that be possible in any developed country? Do our own laws permit that? If they have done an EIA, why not publish it?

Let us see whether this new road can be expected to promote industrial growth in our state. I do not know whether any major industry has decided not to come to Kerala because of the lack of an expressway. But I very much doubt that. Kerala has been trying to attract industries by showing facilities like cheap electricity, plenty of water and skilled workers. Still, only a few have turned up. We have to look for reasons elsewhere. Did our various governments get anyone to do an ‘unbiased’ study and recommend solutions? Were the solutions tried out?

Can we expect the new road to provide employment to our people? The website tells us that, except the cost of steel, most of the remaining money will be ploughed back into the state. I wonder. Most of the materials used for the road will have to come from outside. Most of the labour is surely going to come from other states. We have people from Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and many other states working as laborers here, particularly for road and railway works (including laying of cables and pipes). I am sure the same trend will continue in this project also. The website says that rubber and coir from Kerala will be used. We will be lucky if these are not brought from outside at a cheaper rate!

There is no easy solution to the problems of the state. And expecting an Expressway to bring a new dawn is expecting a bit too much.

V. Sasi Kumar <vsasi@vsnl.com>
CESS

I agree with the views expressed by Sasikumar: the problems of Kerala lie elsewhere, not in the absence of an Expressway. I have had the occasion to exchange views with some people associated with various industries. None of them cited lack of roads as a reason for their lack of interest in industrial Kerala. High labour militancy and low productivity were the main reasons, according to them.

An Expressway is a good thing to have, no doubt — when all the other more important requirements have been met. We need to prioritize of requirements and move down the list. Old-timers say that there was once a continuous waterway from Kochi to Thiruvananthapuram, which was used to to transport goods and people. Today, this waterway has been cut in many places owing to a host of reasons including encroachment, silting and dumping of waste. Once there were serious thoughts about repairing/rehabilitating/upgrading this waterway. Anyone knows what happened to the idea? If economically feasible, that would immensely help traffic as an alternative and faster (using better boats/hydrofoils) mode of travel.

Timely maintenance and upgrading of national (by NHA and CPWD) and state (by state PWD or private parties) highways are much more required than an Expressway. Taxpayers’ money would be better used in such projects than in an Expressway at this point of time.

Arun Kumar” arunedin@bgl.vsnl.net.in

Hi All,

There was an article in Satragathy of KSSP about the express highway. Prof. RVG Menon is the editor, if I get the permission from him, I will scan it and post here.

I agree with you Gopinathan and others. Express Even if there is no opposition to it, it is not going to happen, as it not economically viable. People of Kerala has already avoiding high toll roads and bridges.

As Sasikumar suggested we can arrive at a resolution democratically, may be one statement.

Simon Sam,

Please understand that , conditions of roads in Kerala is very bad. What we need is to make them good, rather than going for big EH, which is useless to 90% of the people.

Those who had the privilege of driving in western countries have to compare the traffic rules in those countries with our traffic rules. What we need is not big highways but a traffic culture – better traffic rules, strict regulations, strict enforcements. For example people below 25 years of age should not be allowed to drive 100 cc (or higher) two wheelers. We need to post speed limits in all roads etc

You wrote: " In fact the 600 km long Railways from north to south have only about 450 Railway crossings all along. But nobody is feeling it as a great wall? " Can you assure me that I can cross this express high way, just like the way I cross railway lines. ??? Regards

Nazilin: nazilinvaheed@yahoo.com

The points raised by both of you are very relevant are well accepted. As I understand it, the key issue here is that of priority. Also, there is the issue of what development such a project will bring about.

I believe that while we make these points, we should not oppose to this new project for such reasons. If there are people to invest in waterways, yes, why not, they are more than welcome. But let this project go through.

Development investment always has its own logic. It is true that the right investment today may be in vocational education / waterways / repairs to the existing roads / the legal system. (I hear that there are many courts with not enough money for sending even a registered letter). But such investments will have to be done by the government, which is bankrupt. For the Government to earn tax money there should be a functioning economy. That will happen only through such investments in infrastructure. I believe that such investment projects will invite further investments in other sectors giving the necessary boost / trigger for our economy.

We have everything that needs to make our home state the very best in the Asia … and I hope we can do it with a little bit of discipline in public life …….

K.G.Mohan , Kuwait: k_g_mohan@hotmail.com

Interesting that we still want to solve problems – I think the fact that still its not a easy decision for anyone to think of going to TVM from calicut and back the same day is a serious issue. Plus – again I have to say these projects (assuming its implemented properly) should not just solve today’s deficiency – should look at bringing in new opportunities for the economic cevelopment of the state. As you said the you cant find the economic feasibilty details at the site. Then that is the problem. We should ask for that information – before criticising the project. Unfortunately, I just dont have the time to put together a reasonable summary of the specific measurable benefits of this project. I would hope that SImon or others can arrange for a copy of the feasibiltiy study. I will also ask my dad to find out more about it during his next visit to TVM. Regds. Pramod

>Pramod

As a transport economist I think I should try to answer some of the issues raised here in regard to the expressway project.

Whether existing roads are sufficient?.

The website http://rbdck.com/ker_exp/traffic/traffic.htm gives a fair report of the study of existing road as follows.

The service level of the road network in Kerala is poor, which carry fast and slow vehicles and pass through built up areas. Most of the roads are single lane or intermediate lane with poor geometry as they have been developed by various stages of transformation and improvements of village roads. Numerous road junctions along these roads make it unsuitable for speedy through traffic. The growing mismatch between vehicle population and availability of road infrastructure has resulted in heavy traffic densities on roads. The present traffic density on the arterial NH 47 is in the range of 65000 PCU and average speed attainable is only 39 Km ph. For NH 17, it is nearly 44000 PCU and 48 Km ph respectively. The traffic analysis conducted by the consultant, M/s. Lea Associates South Asia Pvt. Ltd, shows that if no major initiatives are made on the present road network, the volume levels, particularly on National Highways 17 and 47, are likely to exceed capacity levels by nearly three times in 10 years and about 6 times in another 20 years. Reports state that accident rates of Kerala is double that of national average and it is fourth in position among states in the number of accidents. 10 % of the accidents reported in the country take place in Kerala every year. Out of 3 lakh persons injured every year in India, Kerala records as much as fifty thousand.

From the graph it can be seen that the average speed attainable after 20 years in our arterials will be less than 20 km /hour. Is it enough for a state to prosper?

Why Expressway? Development of rail and inland water channels should solve the problems?

Set apart all the ideological differences, when we talk about development, I think USA should be taken as a scale of comparison. In USA 95% of land based passenger trips and 45% of land based fright traffic are on public roads. (More or less similar is the condition in all other developed countries) In fact they invested heavily on railroads and highways, during early 19 the century, but by the middle of 19 th century, the shift from railways to highway was almost complete. The reason is very simple. Road transport is a door-to-door service. It is more economic and efficient than any other mode of transport. In case of railway and waterways, the commodities/ passengers are transported between terminals only. Other mode of transport is to be depending for taking to and from these terminals. Lot of time as well as handling and storage charges are wasted here.

3.Expressway is only to benefit car companies or lorry owners? How it benefit to common man?

There are direct beneficiaries and indirect beneficiaries to Expressway. It is a fact that kerala does not have much prospects in industrialization, mainly, because of the high population density, environmental sensitivity(over?), militant unions, corrupt burocratic set up, non availability of raw material etc. What are possible is only small scale industries which can run by small groups of people like “ayal kootam”. It is an accepted fact that these types of industry have a better potential of employment than major industries. Globally it is assessed that the market for such industries lies within 2 hours journey from the production center, which means 200 km along expressway that would have been 80 km otherwise. This means a better market for a producer.

And for a common man, say who have to travel between Eranakulam to Kozhikode, now it is 12 hours to and fro. If he wants some useful time for his business, he may have to stay a day in some hotel. He can complete a to and fro journey within 3 hours time through expressway by taking a bus plying through expressway (What is the restriction for busses on expressway? The interchanges are seems to be only at an average of 15 km from major townships)

And for a truck owner, who takes only one trip per day from Ernakulam to Kozhikode at present, can take two trips within a day through expressway. Better use of investment?? A part of his benefit will be transferred to the end users. Increasing the efficiency of system lowers the cost. Generally in such transport project the toll is fixed in such a way that it will be 60% to 80% of total savings in VOC and VOT.

4.What are the problems Expressway will solve?

This question could not be answered in one or two sentences. But let me put it in this way. As we have already mentioned, industrialization of Kerala is a distant possibility now. Then what should be our next priority? If money is made some how, then only it can be distributed. Now the service sector is almost as big as agriculture, contributing about 25% of our GDP. That is one area, which is growing, but whether that growth is sufficient? Not at all. Why can’t we grow like Singapore? A country with the size of Alappuzha districts and population of about 10% of that in Kerala, have GDP of 7 times that of whole Kerala! Foreign visitors of Singapore last year is almost double the population!!. We should be ambitious. A tourist who is coming to kerala may visit Kochi. Then to reach Kovalam,200 km away, 5 hours journey or to checking in an Airport, waiting in the airport…..People in the developed world have more value for their time than we have. And think about traveling to Bakel? Many may not opt for this. But if the expressway is there, the distance will become immaterial. And all destinations of the state will get equal opportunity in development.

Lots of points are remaining to be discussed. Time is the constraint. We will meet later. The opinions of Mr. Pramod Prasanth seem to be very balanced?

Best regards to all
Simon Sam

We need to discuss. Why de we need an express highway?
What are the practical problems it can solve?
If this highway is needed for industry.

———————————————-
Transportation of goods is important for industrial development. In Kerala existing railway and road network solves this properly. Most of our districts are well connected to nearest commercial and tourist centers of neighboring states. Even though Kerala is a narrow strip, we have two or three lines of roads parallel to seashore through out the state. We have not heard any complaints from our industrialists and exporters about lack of proper transportation facilities. Existing infrastructure may not be enough now, they need to be improved. For that we have to drop this super express high way and plan a series of small project to widen and improve existing roads. How do we expect that the express highway be used for industrial transportation? Our industries and exporters cannot afford the big toll. Why don’t we think of two more additional railway lines? They have just completed doubling the line succesfuly. Are our railway lines fully utilized?

If the highway is needed for passenger sector
———————————————
I think ten or twenty Push-Pull trains connecting district centers can solve more problems than this express highway.

Regards
Nazilin

A progressive society needs to develop various aspects and it is not difficult to imagine where certain individual rights are sacrified for the greater well being of the society – of course with appropriate compensation from the society.

So for example it doesnt really make sense to discuss a hotel project with the expressway project. THey tackle two different issues. The expressway is for common good – everyone will benefit from it – those who use it and those who dont also.

By increasing the speed of economic growth everyone will be benefiting. Actually these kinds or projects are an absolute essential so that we can take the burden off the thousands who slog and contribute 30% of Kerala’s GDP in the gulf states. (Those who have been to Gulf would know how horrible a life majority of Keralites – like many others live there!)

Worldclass transportation, telecommunîcation and energy infrastrucutre with a good social system (judiciary, financial, educational, health etc.) will help our economy match the growth we have done on social development scales.

About the specifics of expressway, I also understand that it is not clear about how such infrastructure works. I would imagine that govt. does a bit more to educate the ppl. about the basics of such designs – its prevailing all around the world – including countries like malaysia or even to an extent sri lanka.

I do agree that there is a substantial shift in the concept, as it exists in India today compared to what the planners are planning. I also think we should not underestimate the knowledge of our planners. They are all ppl. with knowledge.

Pramod pramod@hispeed.ch

This is your mis-concept about development. Transportation facilities are needed for development mainly for transporting goods and raw materials. Travelling 100 km/hr is not at all essential for development. Actually this high way which partitions Kerala into two strips, is going to cause more traffic problem to people and existing industries.

Prasanth please tell us what problem this high way is going to solve before you want people to sacrifice for it.

I see no logic in this argument. First of all economic growth cannot be triggered by a High way in a state like Kerala – we already have enough road and rail network – maintenance and improvement is important.

The experience of so called economic boom, after liberalization in India, shows that more jobs will be lost than gained in a liberalized economy. For example while all our major automobile manufacturers registered record growth, most of them cut employees by 15 to 30 %. Issue of economic growth is complex. Issue of welfare of people is much more complex so also the relationship between them. No simple solution!!! People who want us to believe that they will solve all these issues by projects like this, do not want to address or discuss the real problems.

We do not need anything ‘world class’. We need solutions to our problems in a scientific way not in a SPECULATIVE way.

The word ‘word class’ itself is an advertisement LOGO of global financial capital, which want to invest every here and sell services to common people at higher price including water , road etc.

Regards
Nazilin

Mohan’s comments is all I too could say to answer. Projects need to solve problems and should be forward looking. And good infrastructure projects need to be more of the later.

And I think the website cited by Simon does answer many a questions. If you look at it rationally, you could find some very valid points.

And if you are convinced that Kerala already has more than enough infrastructure and that we need not be world class – guess this discussion is not really fruitful.

Thanks
Pramod

Well, like for all infrastructure projects, the benefits are not immediate and personal (unlike the unemployment dole). For example what benefit did India’s space programme bring about ? What benefits would more investments in fundamental research in science bring to me ? Nothing immediate. But nevertheless there are benefits to the society and indirectly to me.

First of all this is a move in the right direction. If others see this project as a successful one there will be more investments. (Reliance has already wired the whole counrty with fibre optic cables, enabling them to offer better long distance call rates than what VSNL could offer – don’t say we have nobody to talk to in Kashmir, hahaha ) These investments would make it logical to do business from Kerala. More business would move in creating more employment. More business is more tax revenue for Government. (Which should concentrate on Governance not on doing business).

Nazhilin’s view that all this is high end marketing which the people of Kerala cannot afford – May be. But the guy’s who promote this scheme should be more worried. We have a choice to take the highway or use the PWD road ! Nazhilin, I feel that the salary levels in India is & should raise as India gets integrated to rest of the world economically. You and I may not benefit, but may be our children would.

Thanks anyway to all of you for participating so passionately in the discussions. I did gain a lot from these . Especially some very valid criticism of the project from an investor’s point of view.
K.G.Mohan
Kuwait

Unfortunately it failed to give enough and detailed information about the issues this EH is going to solve.

Then we can analyze whether that deficiency can be solved by EH. Pramod, Mohan etc please provide more information or pointers to that "deficiency in Transport Infrastructure" .

Regards
Nazilin

As a transport economist I think I should try to answer some of the issues raised here in regard to the expressway project.

1. Whether existing roads are sufficient?.

The website http://rbdck.com/ker_exp/traffic/traffic.htm gives a fair report of the study of existing road as follows.

The service level of the road network in Kerala is poor, which carry fast and slow vehicles and pass through built up areas. Most of the roads are single lane or intermediate lane with poor geometry as they have been developed by various stages of transformation and improvements of village roads. Numerous road junctions along these roads make it unsuitable for speedy through traffic. The growing mismatch between vehicle population and availability of road infrastructure has resulted in heavy traffic densities on roads. The present traffic density on the arterial NH 47 is in the range of 65000 PCU and average speed attainable is only 39 Km ph. For NH 17, it is nearly 44000 PCU and 48 Km ph respectively. The traffic analysis conducted by the consultant, M/s. Lea Associates South Asia Pvt. Ltd, shows that if no major initiatives are made on the present road network, the volume levels, particularly on National Highways 17 and 47, are likely to exceed capacity levels by nearly three times in 10 years and about 6 times in another 20 years. Reports state that accident rates of Kerala is double that of national average and it is fourth in position among states in the number of accidents. 10 % of the accidents reported in the country take place in Kerala every year. Out of 3 lakh persons injured every year in India, Kerala records as much as fifty thousand.

From the graph it can be seen that the average speed attainable after 20 years in our arterials will be less than 20 km /hour. Is it enough for a state to prosper?

2.Why Expressway? Development of rail and inland water channels should solve the problems?

Set apart all the ideological differences, when we talk about development, I think USA should be taken as a scale of comparison. In USA 95% of land based passenger trips and 45% of land based fright traffic are on public roads. (More or less similar is the condition in all other developed countries) In fact they invested heavily on railroads and highways, during early 19 the century, but by the middle of 19 th century, the shift from railways to highway was almost complete. The reason is very simple. Road transport is a door-to-door service. It is more economic and efficient than any other mode of transport. In case of railway and waterways, the commodities/ passengers are transported between terminals only. Other mode of transport is to be depending for taking to and from these terminals. Lot of time as well as handling and storage charges are wasted here.
3.Expressway is only to benefit car companies or lorry owners? How it benefit to common man?

There are direct beneficiaries and indirect beneficiaries to Expressway. It is a fact that kerala does not have much prospects in industrialization, mainly, because of the high population density, environmental sensitivity(over?), militant unions, corrupt burocratic set up, non availability of raw material etc. What are possible is only small scale industries which can run by small groups of people like “ayal kootam”. It is an accepted fact that these types of industry have a better potential of employment than major industries. Globally it is assessed that the market for such industries lies within 2 hours journey from the production center, which means 200 km along expressway that would have been 80 km otherwise. This means a better market for a producer.

And for a common man, say who have to travel between Eranakulam to Kozhikode, now it is 12 hours to and fro. If he wants some useful time for his business, he may have to stay a day in some hotel. He can complete a to and fro journey within 3 hours time through expressway by taking a bus plying through expressway (What is the restriction for busses on expressway? The interchanges are seems to be only at an average of 15 km from major townships)

And for a truck owner, who takes only one trip per day from Ernakulam to Kozhikode at present, can take two trips within a day through expressway. Better use of investment?? A part of his benefit will be transferred to the end users. Increasing the efficiency of system lowers the cost. Generally in such transport project the toll is fixed in such a way that it will be 60% to 80% of total savings in VOC and VOT.

What are the problems Expressway will solve?

This question could not be answered in one or two sentences. But let me put it in this way. As we have already mentioned, industrialization of Kerala is a distant possibility now. Then what should be our next priority? If money is made some how, then only it can be distributed. Now the service sector is almost as big as agriculture, contributing about 25% of our GDP. That is one area, which is growing, but whether that growth is sufficient? Not at all. Why can’t we grow like Singapore? A country with the size of Alappuzha districts and population of about 10% of that in Kerala, have GDP of 7 times that of whole Kerala! Foreign visitors of Singapore last year is almost double the population!!. We should be ambitious. A tourist who is coming to kerala may visit Kochi. Then to reach Kovalam,200 km away, 5 hours journey or checking in to an Airport, waiting in the airport…..People in the developed world have more value for their time than we have. And think about traveling to Bakel? Many may not opt for this. But if the expressway is there, the distance will become immaterial. And all destinations of the state will get equal opportunity in development.

Lots of points are remaining to be discussed. Time is the constraint. We will meet later. The opinions of Mr. Pramod Prasanth seem to be very balanced?

Best regards to all
Simon Sam

Interesting points I have to say. But let me add one small point: Investment of Rs .6000 crores – Thats close to Rs. 1.2 billion – leaving aside anything else, just that kind of money being invested will itself be a great boos to our economy.

I am looking forward to seeing more detailed reports on this scheme – technical and economic!

Pramod Prasanth" <pramod@hispeed.ch

Most of our vehicles runs around 50-60 kmph speed. If such vehicles are brought into the Express Highway which is designed for 100 0r 140 kmph, the same scenario will be arised. It will be much better than a road with auto rikshaws, two wheelers etc, but proposed speed will not be feasible.

Can we think of having separate lines for slow moving vehicles in our roads step by step. By slow moving vehicle I mean auto rikhas ect, which moves less than 30-40 kmph.

This is not enough for us to start a 6000 CR project. What is shown above is not the problem; it is characteristics of the problem only. One approach could be to categorize these roads into different areas and type of locations and have a split up figure, and then only the real problem can be found. What is the data suggesting that a different road (EH) with only less than 20 entry points running through different area reduces the congestion in above high ways? What percentage of the existing traffic through these roads can be diverted to new EH with 20 entry points?

How EH will solve this problem? Not even 20% of the additional vehicles which will be added in future need to run through the EH. Unless EH is a free access road having a many more entry/exit points. If a new road is extremely needed why don’t it be of maximum speed round 70-80 kmph , and more entry exit points. This also indicates that even though you travel 100 kmph in EH and you will be spending hours to reach the actual destination. That means unless comparable projects are planned for other major roads, the benefits of EH will not be available even to the privileged few who can afford it. Most of the accidents are due to over speed. EH will not solve this problem, Actually EH may cause more accidents – you tend to drive fast once spend a long time in free ways, and you may cross speed limits in small road after taking exits.

b. How does a high-speed highway eliminate accidents? I remember seeing a chain of cars collide head to tail, in a US high way. Such accidents may happen near to exits.
Trucks are mostly running in the night, as the traffic is low.
Tourist locations in Kerala are spread out. Actually Kerala is small place for them, with less traveling they can see a lot when compared to other states.
This is a valid point. But 6000 Cr. Spending for that is too much.

Nazilin Vaheed" <nazilinvaheed@yahoo.com

I just got back from an informal and interesting chat with Narayana Murthy of Infosys. (he is here to participate in the WEF at Davos)
We were generally discussing India. One interesting thing he pointed out was the thesis of Amartya Sen – about two fundamental requirements for development – literacy and healthcare. We in Kerala have no problems with either of them. But these are fundamental requirements – but in itself is not sufficient. We need two other catalysts to make this work. One is of course good leadership. The second and the reason why I am writing it here is – visible signs of progress: this EH would be one of that – efficient and REAL powerplants, good airports, universities, buildings and so on.

Hence I think we should in addition to the pure transportation logic behind the need for EH (like the option of Passways as suggested by Dr. Ekbal instead of EH) we should also look at the macro-economic growth driving ability of these projects. We in Kerala havent had any substantial mega projects for a long time (perhaps ever!)

Also it is important that the youth have some positive things to dream about, to get excited about – there’s a vaccum there which is what I think trade unions are able to utilise – these mega-projects could generate the kind of excitement that the IT revolution has been able to do – but on a much more localised scale!

Cheers, Pramod

Pramod writes about mega projects and their potential to incite excitements especially in the youth. But I have a feeling that the Keralaites by nature do not think big. Look at the SSLC rank holders their dreams end at becoming a doctor or engineer. Why not Somebody says for a change that I would like to be Nobel Laureate? Look at the Kerala names that show our "small" mentality like Govindan"kutty" , "kochu"naryanan etc.

Ekbal
ekbal@vsnl.com

An interesting concept, I must say. But the truth is that there were many Keralites who thought big, followed their dreams and went on to realize those dreams. In the past few decades, however, we became comparatively more "educated" than others. That could be one reason why most think within certain well-defined boundaries.
Arun Kumar

Let me try to explain some of the points raised by Mr. Nazilin Vaheed :
1.”Can we think of having separate lines for slow moving vehicles in our roads step by step. By slow moving vehicle I mean auto rikhas ect, which moves less than 30-40 kmph”

Where to make additional lines? The RoW of most of the road is 8 to 20 m

2.”This is not enough for us to start a 6000 CR project. What is shown above is not the problem; it is characteristics of the problem only. One approach could be to categorize these roads into different areas and type of locations and have a split up figure, and then only the real problem can be found. What is the data suggesting that a different road (EH) with only less than 20 entry points running through different area reduces the congestion in above high ways? What percentage of the existing traffic through these roads can be diverted to new EH with 20 entry points?”

I fully agree with this. I believe the proposal for the Expressway may not be an impulsive decision of some one. It is learnt that M/s. Lea Associates South Asia Pvt Ltd was engaged as the consultant for the feasibility study. There are sound engineering practices and procedures to be adopted in such situations. (I apologies to every one. I know it is too technical to discuss in a forum like this)

1. FIRST OF ALL FOLLOWING TRAFFIC SURVEYS ARE TO BE CONDUCTED.
Traffic Volume studies (the number of vehicles of different types plying in various directions in various sections of roads), Origin and Destination studies (which are based on the responses from people interviewed at select places along the roads) Speed and Delay studies (by travelling through various road sections in both directions and finding out the maximum speed which could be attained and the speed which could be maintained during the travel, the delay in travel etc.) Route Choice Perception surveys (the study of preferred routes of commuters to various destinations)

These studies are to be conducted at number of locations on various categories of roads. Then the type of settlement (ie.,the concentration of people on land),the population distribution ,the economic condition prevailing etc. are also to be studied along with this.

2.PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF ROAD SYSTEM:

Then various performance indicators of a road system are to be studied as follows.

A) Speed: Every road is designed to carry a particular volume of traffic (which is called the capacity of the road). But usually due to several other dependent factors such as damaged surfaces, unexpected increase in traffic flow etc., in many cases, the roads are unable to handle the designed volume of traffic. So the ratio of actual volume of traffic passing through a road to its intended capacity is generally taken as a performance indicator (called V/C ratio –Volume to Capacity ratio). The V/C ratio and travel time is greatly influenced by the speed attainable on the road by an average vehicle. Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) is dependent on the speed. To find the level of speed, Speed and Delay surveys are to be conducted on the highways. For this the highways are to be divided into identical sections called links. These are to be then traversed in two directions separately. 6 runs/section on different hours of the day are to be used to reach at the most representative and dependable result. The factors measured for each road sections are to be Width, Roughness of the surface (as values), Type of road (such as NH, SH, MDR etc.), Length of section, Journey time, Stopped time, Vehicles in opposite direction, Vehicles overtaken, Vehicles overtaking, Average Speed etc.

B) Level of Service (LoS): It is a qualitative measure to describe the operating conditions within the traffic stream and their perception by motorists and passengers. The factors affecting Level of Service are speed, travel time, traffic interruption, freedom to manoeuvre or move, maintenance of desired speed, driving comfort, convenience, operation cost (which includes the cost of purchase, depreciation of value of vehicle, fuel cost, wages for workers etc.)of vehicle etc. Travel speed and V/C ratio (as explained earlier) reflect the LoS of the road.

The LoS is classified as A, B, C etc. depending on the type and importance of roads. The Volume to Capacity Ratios (VCR) at various sections of important roads of are to be find out, which is used in analysis regarding requirement of new corridor and future traffic projections on such corridors.

TRAFFIC PROJECTION:

The projection of traffic in the country of study and specifically to the corridor under reference, for future years are to be done on the basis of the traffic surveys, existing road system performance and projected growth of economy. The entire study area has to be divided into a number of traffic zones inside the state and outside. The entire network is then to be divided into a number of nodes and links. Then the proposed new corridor is superimposed on the above network and network connection is established through the access points to interchanges. The link lengths, link speeds etc. has to be collected through field survey.

The Next Step is to Find Trip Productions and Attractions:

Population, Income and Vehicle ownership influence trip production by Passenger Vehicles where as NSDP, GDP etc. influence trip production by Goods Vehicles. Therefore production and attraction trip rates has to be established for each zone by considering the vehicle types as representations of socio-economic conditions. Future attractions and productions of each zone are obtained by predicting the population, employment, domestic products, income and then computing productions and attractions for the future year, based on the forecasted socio-economic parameters.

Then the Trip Distribution are find out

For estimating Trip distribution, Gravity model is generally used which is as follows. The equation used is

Tij = Pi * Aj f (wij) / åAjf(wij)

Where Pi = Trip productions at Origin

Aj = Trip attractions at destination

f (wij) = spatial separation between origin and destination measured as an interval of travel time.

It is assumed that, the trip length frequency distribution pattern will remain stable over a period of 20 years.

1) Passenger Traffic: Here the traffic of each zones under consideration is taken for the base year (study year) and the income levels of people coming under these zones are also noted. Any link or relation between the traffic and the income of the corresponding group is identified. As the income increases the Trip Rates (the number of trips to different destinations taken by various groups of people in various category of vehicles within a particular time) also increase. Then based on this the production of traffic is calculated with respect to the predicted income for each zone of study.

The future addition of traffic is calculated based on the expected employment at each zones under consideration under the assumption that additional employment would result in more traffic.

2) Goods Traffic: Goods vehicle traffic would be more at places of work and therefore it is dependent on the number of workers belonging to those places. The income levels are a suggestion of the spending capacity of the people involved and thus the goods traffic. In the regions where Ports are present the growth of traffic depends mainly on the growth of imports and exports.

Based on the trend of NSDP, GDP, Per Capita Income etc., the passenger and goods traffic likely to be produced is calculated for future years. The effect of investments in various sectors is to be foreseen to bring about a shift in employment and also positive growth in NSDP and Per Capita Income. Prediction is based on the data obtained from the base year (by the Gravity Model explained earlier).

The maximum possible traffic on the corridor of study is calculated by assuming the economic scenario of Country. The divertible traffic (the traffic which is possible to enter the new road from the existing major roads) is determined as per a method called Public Roads Diversion Curve method (which uses the travel time of each type of traffic). The simple equation used generally is given below.

P=100/(1+t6) ………where ‘P’ is the % of traffic diverted to new road and ‘ t’ is the Travel time ratio (i.e., the time taken for travel with the road under proposal divided by the time taken to travel the same distance without the road under proposal).

About 80% of generated traffic based on the increased employment opportunities and development of new industries etc because of the new corridor is then added to 50% of divertible traffic to get the Total traffic on the corridor of study.

Such sophisticated analysis are generally done before assessing the requirements of new corridors and projection of traffic on to such corridors, which I feel should have done for the Expressway also.

3.”This also indicates that even though you travel 100 kph in EH and you will be spending hours to reach the actual destination. That means unless comparable projects are planned for other major roads, the benefits of EH will not be available even to the privileged few who can afford it.”

This is a valid point; the feeder roads to the expressway should also be improved. Not only that all roads are to be improved depending on their priority like arterials, sub arterials, feeder roads, major roads and village roads.

4.”Most of the accidents are due to over speed. EH will not solve this problem, Actually EH may cause more accidents – you tend to drive fast once spend a long time in free ways, and you may cross speed limits in small road after taking exits.

b. How does a high-speed highway eliminate accidents? I remember seeing a chain of cars collide head to tail, in a US high way. Such accidents may happen near to exits.”

There is not a single solution for all evils. Only thing is that there is no chance of head-on collision in expressway. Also the accident will be less as the entries exists are only from Interchanges.

5.”You yourself cannot find transportation issues as a bottleneck for industrialization. Listed issues include: high population density, environmental sensitivity (over?), militant unions, corrupt bureaucratic set up, non availability of raw material NOT TRANSPORT ISSUE.

b. Possibility of industrial growth of Kerala is not limited to “ayal kootam”.

c. This is an absurd argument. That type of production and marketing cannot utilize EH which has only 18 entry points. With 1% of the total cost of EH, you can do much better service to such units.”

Yes I don’t see chances for big industries in Kerala even if Expressway is there. Such projects should not be seen as something to give facility to any particular group or establishments. Everyone will get his or her share of benefit. I have no opinion that ayalkoottom is the only possibility for the development of kerala. Possibilities will be there for small and medium level industries in Agro industries, biotechnology IT, Tourism etc.

6.”This is a major point. But how many Keralites want this service at this point. I think most of us prefer an overnight train for such long trips.”

Attitudes also may change, once such facilities like Expressway is in position.

7”a. Trucks are mostly running in the night, as the traffic is low.

b. But this is a real gain. But how bad we need this to spend 6000 Cr Rs.

c. Yet the benefit is for truck owner?

Trucks are running in night as road is congested in daytime? They idle in daytime. That is the crux of the problem of existing road. A truck should be able to travel 1000km a day. Let us hope for it.

Please try to understand the logic Dear Mr. Nazilin Vaheed, the truck owners labourers will get money only if the truck owner makes it. This is the basic problem with the thinking of we Keralites. We are bothered about the distribution of money, before make it.!! So we have an empty treasury??????

I think this is a very important aspect that we must discuss – my dad used to tell me that the biggest difference between keralites and others like punjabis and gujuratis was their ability to think bigger and more important was the threshold level where they think that they have achieved. In kerala that level is rather low – for example if someone makes say a million rupees doing business – in Kerala he would already start thinking that he has arrived – and would also start his way of conspicuous consumption – where generally speaking that kind of threshold is much higher in other states.

Also the risk taking ability of us. Perhaps it has something to do with being literate – we do consider much more aspects about the situation than others – but since the education level is not exceptionally higher – we arent able to go beyond that and get into the levels of calculated risk taking that we could see in more developed countries.

So I could think that apart from the lack of visible signs of progress – and leadership with vision – not just politically – across the spectrum – business, academics etc., I think the quality of education is also not very high. I wonder why relatively very few malayalee kids make it to the IITs or the IIMs and certainly outside India in great institutes across the globe – (ETH Zurich this year for the first time, rather last year – got their first “studied” in Kerala student! They have been having Indian students for the last 40 years atleast!)

But having said all those negative things, I also have the feeling that we in Kerala are at the threshold of some magnificent changes – economic changes building our social success – it just has to happen given the amount of educated youth we have – I just hope we get a visionary leader who can excite all of them to bring out the enormous energy and creative potential of every one of them – what better place than one of the world’s most preferred “nature” destination to incubate creativity.

So my two questions for discussion are: What can and is being done to take quality of education – particularly higher education (primary: we do have a good system in place I think!)? And, what can and is being done to bring in able leadership for different areas – young, visionary thinkers – in politics, academics, bureaucracy, business, professionals and so on…

Pramod

Precisely – and this noise is not something silly. That¹s what I have been trying to tell – we need something big, to slice through this noise and excite people. Something that will change the thinking of people. Of course just an EH project will not do that. But it’s a very VISIBLE sign of progress that will be difficult to ignore.

It’s perhaps one way of doing it. But then, we need to DO SOMETHING – one way or the other – take big steps and the risks associated with it!

And just an additional comment – about most employment going to ppl. From outside kerala for the project. Yes that could be true. But that’s not in itself a bad thing. First, it brings up the question why we are not getting jobs locally – lack of skills and non-competitive, secondly – whether they are from anywhere else, they will have to live in Kerala – and that¹s going to initiate growth in secondary / tertiary sectors. So while a proportion of the money spent will go outside, a portion will stay back too – better than not having anything at all.

And from my experience in traveling around the world – our NHs are not comparable to a good EH. They just lack the necessary infrastructure to support fast movement.

Pramod

One question raised by Shri. Anivar Aravind, Thrissur was not properly attended I think. The Question was as follows
“I have some questions on this issue.

The cost of the EH is said to be Rs.6400 cr.A company will be formed with Rs.692cr from gov,and692cr by a private partner. the gov will give 1000cr for aquisition of land. it will raise Rs3200cr from financial institutions by taking debt on the bond of land. The income from the company is equally divided (both have 50% shares.) The total money invested by the govt= 692+1000= 1692cr the total money invested by the private partner= 692 cr only. the debt from financial institution is take on the bond of govt. no more comments!!. they should get equal income."

The role of Special Purpose Company constituted for road construction is generally limited to the construction and management of the road only. The Right of Way will be vested with the government. The SPC will have right to construct and operate road for a pre-determined period generally 30 years or so. The responsibility for repayment loan will be vested with the SPC. Hence there is no anomaly sharing the income equally. But I think any fear that someone will take away undue profit by investing in this project is totally baseless and it is because of the mis-concepts about BOT projects. BOT may be most heard word after the present ministry took over. But how many BOT projects have come up? The general impression is that if we put forward some ideas without any commitments, investors will queue-up to invest their hard earned money!!

I can tell you the shares of private investment in transport sector all over the world are minimum. The reason is that the highway projects are with uncertain revenue streams and the risk involved is very high. Projects can be financially viable, but look at the risk and uncertainties involved. Hence some form of subsidy / guarantee / loan insurance are required in such projects. If risks are borne purely on commercial terms, not many toll roads are financially feasible. That is the reason why the responsibility of transport infrastructure development is largely with the government in almost all the countries. Let us examine the status in some of the countries.

THE UNITED STATES

The United States has the largest and most diverse and technologically advanced economy in the world. Its market-oriented structure relies heavily on private individuals and business firms. Since a brief recession in the early 1990s, the United States has enjoyed considerable economic prosperity, as measured by gains in real output, low inflation rates, and a drop in unemployment below 5 percent. Annual GDP growth has exceeded 2.0 percent per annum every year since 1992, with growth figures for 1996, 1997, and 1998 amounting to 3.45, 3.93, and 3.85 percent respectively.

Although the United States has a vast and heavily used multimodal network of transportation infrastructure, public investment priorities for land transport during most of this century have focused almost exclusively on roads and highways. As a result, the country is now highly dependent on motorized vehicles, particularly for passenger transport. There are approximately 6.3 million km of public roads in the United States, of which nearly 85,000 km are urban and rural express highways. The nation’s extensive private railway network, totaling nearly 200,000 km, is used primarily for freight transport— especially that of bulk commodities. The advent of the 90 percent federally funded “Interstate System” of expressways in the 1950s made available good free public roads through out the country. There are currently a total of 84,900 km of urban and rural express highways in the United States, of which only 5,660 km (6.7 percent) are tolled. Of urban expressways alone, 2,410 km (or 7.8 percent) are tolled.

THE UNITED KINGDOM

The United Kingdom is an important international trading power and financial center, and ranks among the four largest economies in the European Union. Banking, insurance, and business services account for the largest proportion of GDP, while industry continues to decline in importance, now employing only 25 percent of the work force. The economy has been growing at a modest, but steady, rate with GDP increasing by 2.7 percent in 1995, 2.2 percent in 1996, and 3.3 percent in 1997.

Transport infrastructure in the United Kingdom is extensive and highly developed, although increasingly aging and in need of rehabilitation. The country’s highway network totals nearly 400,000 km, of which more than 3,200 km are motorways (express highways, nearly all of which are toll-free).

JAPAN

Japan, with the world’s second largest economy, is led by manufacturing industries and characterized by government-industry cooperation, a strong work ethic, mastery of high technology, and a comparatively small defense allocation (roughly 1 percent of GDP). During the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, Japan’s overall annual average (real) economic growth was excellent, averaging 10 percent, 5 percent, and 4 percent annually in the respective decades.

Japan’s extensive multimodal transport system is among the most highly developed in the world. The country’s road and rail networks total more than 1 million km and 23,000 km, respectively. These totals include about 12,000 km of high-standard trunk roads (mostly toll roads), and more than 700 km of tolled urban expressways. The country’s rail system includes extensive urban commuter railways, as well as a 2,000 km network of high- speed Shinkansen (“bullet train”) network. While highways and rails compete for transportation, the highway system handles about 66% of all passenger trips (passenger-km) and 53% of all land-based freight traffic (ton-km) as of 1995.

Between 1956 and 1968, Japan’s national expressways were almost exclusively constructed and operated by Japan Highway Public Corporation (JHPC). However, rapid urbanization and traffic demand growth led to the establishment of regional public corporations such as the Metropolitan Expressway Public Corporation (MEPC, serving metropolitan Tokyo-Yokohama) in 1959, the Hanshin Expressway Public Corporation (HEPC, serving metropolitan Osaka-Kobe) in 1962, and the Honshu-Shikoku Bridge Authority (HSBA, to connect the Shikoku Island to the mainland) in 1970, to undertake urban expressway development. In addition, local public corporations were established to develop local routes at the prefectural level. These Public Corporations have constructed roughly 10,000 km of such toll roads in the 40 years leading up to 1998.

The 1966 Law called for the construction of 7,600 km of national expressways. Key features of this law included: (i) constructing nine longitudinal (backbone-like) expressways, six transverse (rib-like) expressways, and seven other routes; (ii) connecting cities with 100,000 or more inhabitants; and (iii) bringing expressways within a two-hour drive of the majority of car users. The 1987 Law that authorized the construction of 14,000 km of national expressways responsibility for, 11,520 km of which was assigned to JHPC. The key features of this plan included: (i) strengthening ring expressways for major cities; (ii) strengthening links to and from/between major airports and seaports; (iii) bringing expressways within a one-hour drive of the majority of car users; etc.

Toll road projects undertaken by Public Corporations (JHPC, MEPC, HEPC, and HSBA) have been financed largely by two types of government guaranteed bonds provided by Treasury Investment and Loans (TILs): (i) Government Acceptance Bonds and (ii) Government Guaranteed Bonds. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications purchase the Government Acceptance Bonds with funds from sources such as postal savings accounts, employee pension funds, national pension funds, and postal life insurance premiums. The Government Guaranteed Bonds are guaranteed by the Government and purchased by private financial institutions. A relatively small amount of funds has also been raised through the issuance of bonds without government guarantees, as well as bonds in foreign financial markets—both backed by the credit of the public corporations.

Other government-related financial support includes the provision of equity capital and subsidies for the Japan Highway Public Corporation’s interest payments. The total amount of subsidies for interest payments and annual equity contributions for JHPC have been set in such a way as to keep overall financing costs at predetermined levels, thereby reducing risks from interest rate fluctuations. In recent years (1994-97), for example, the maximum overall financing costs to be borne by JHPC have been 4.6 percent for profitable routes and 3.0 percent for unprofitable routes.

MALAYSIA

The Malaysian economy, which combines private enterprise and public management, posted a remarkable 9 percent average annual growth in 1988-96, but slipped to 7.8 percent in 1997 and then decreased by an estimated 6.0 percent in 1998 with the onset of the Asian economic crisis. Principal industries include rubber and oil palm processing, light manufacturing, electronics, tin mining and smelting, and forestry products. The economic growth of the early and mid-1990s resulted in a substantial reduction in poverty and a marked rise in real wages, and the commitment of large sums to the economy by foreign investors.

Transportation infrastructure in Malaysia is characterized by a road network of more than 94,500 km, of which nearly 80 percent are paved. Toll road development in Malaysia has been given a boost during the last 10 years, largely due to the Government’s privatization policy. As demand for better and faster travel on roads has increased, the private sector has responded by investing heavily in toll road infrastructure projects. Already there are more than 1,000 km of toll highways and expressways in operation, and over 1,000 additional km are under construction or planned. After the Government introduced its privatization policy in 1983, the Federal Roads (Private Management) Act of 1984 was enacted by the Parliament, allowing the Government to grant private companies the right to collect tolls on federal roads and to hand over sections of completed roads to private companies for upgrading and subsequent maintenance over a concession period.

Road development in Malaysia may be divided into three phases. In the first phase, from 1966 to 1980, the country commenced the development of the Slim River– Tanjong Malim Highway, which was executed and operated by Jabatan Kerja Raya (JKR, the Public Works Department). In the second phase, from 1980 to 1988, the Malaysia Highway Authority (MHA) was established to construct and operate the North South Expressway and the Penang Bridge as public toll highways. Under the Federal Roads (Private Management) Act of 1984, the Minister of Works was also granted the power to authorize any entity that agreed to construct, re-construct, upgrade, repair or maintain any federal road the right to demand, collect, and retain tolls. Subsequently, in the third phase of Malaysian toll road development, from 1988 to the present the full privatization of toll roads in Malaysia has commenced.

Direct Government Involvement: 1966–80. The first toll highway in Malaysia was the

Slim River–Tanjong Malim Highway, which opened to traffic in 1966. It subsequently reverted to a toll-free section with the opening of the Tanjong Malim–Tapah segment of the North-South Expressway in October 1993.

Operation and Construction by MHA: 1980–88. In October 1980, MHA was established as a Government agency under the direct control of the Ministry of Works for the purpose of designing, constructing, and maintaining toll expressways in order to respond to increasing traffic demands. MHA was also put in charge of construction, management, and toll collection for the North-South Expressway and the Penang Bridge, which were transferred to the agency by PWD. Following a recession in 1984-86, the North-South Expressway was privatized.

Full Privatization of Toll Roads: 1988–present. The signing of a 30-year concession

Contract between the Malaysian Government and United Engineers Malaysia (UEM) for the North-South Expressway in March 1988 ushered in the full privatization of toll expressways in Malaysia.

North-South Expressway. The North-South Expressway (NSE) is an 848 km toll road running the length of the west coast of peninsular Malaysia from the Thai border to Singapore. It was built between 1988 and 1994 at a total cost of US$2.4 billion and was financed entirely on the Malaysian domestic capital market. The highway represented one of the first major BOT projects in Asia. It passes through the country’s major cities and industrial estates and provides an efficient way to move produce from agricultural regions to population centers.

United Engineers Malaysia, Berhad (UEM), the winning bidder, created a new company, Projek Lebuhraya Utara-Selatan Bhd (PLUS), to act as the project concessionaire. Under the terms of the concession, PLUS was obligated to construct the remaining 462 km of NSE and the 35 km New Klang Valley Expressway from Kuala Lumpur to the coast, and to make improvements to 15 km of Federal Highway Route 2. In return, the Government agreed to transfer to PLUS 309 km of NSE that were either already completed or under construction, and the existing toll-collecting sections of Federal Highways 1 and 2 extending 61 km. Upon expiration of the concession in 2018, PLUS’s right to collect tolls will revert to the Government and PLUS will be obligated to hand over the expressways in good condition. There were a total of 46 financial institutions in the syndicate to finance the project.

CHINA

China’s GDP increased at an equivalent average rate of 11.0 percent between 1993

and 1997, and it may be able to achieve more or less same economic growth in the coming years. Road transport has been growing in importance, with the mode accounting for 51 percent of passenger volume and 13 percent of freight volume in 1995, up from 39 percent of passenger volume and 10 percent of freight volume in 1985. China’s road network as on 1977 was 1 million km, of which just over 20 percent were paved.

However, the transport sector has gone under a revolutionary change during the last 10 years during which the length of highway has been dramatically increased to 17, 60,000 kilometres of which 25000 km are Expressways. The investment in highway sector during the year 2000, 2001 and 2002 was equivalent Rs.1, 54,566/- Cr, Rs.1, 78,388/- Cr, and Rs.2, 01,102/- Cr respectively. The highest ever investment of USA for the Highway sector was 2.1% of GDP during 1956-1970, in place of which the investment target of China was 2.4% of GDP, during the 9th five-year plan, which even crossed 3.2% of GDP during the last year.

China has been carrying out an ambitious plan to build up a 35,000 kilometres National Trunk Highway system (NTHS) before 2010. The main objective of the NTHS is to construct 12 nigh standards trunk roads, which comprise of 5 longitudinal roads and 7 latitudinal roads. These highways add up to a total length of 35000 kilometres, most of which are access-controlled expressways. The NTHS, although is a small proportion of the highway network, they connect more than 200 important cities and ports in a network, its passenger and cargo transportation takes one-fourth of the whole network.

In China the project are initially executed by Government departments which are not audited for profit / loss. The project execution agencies are provincial governments. The provincial government and central government share the initial investment. The loan component is usually 25% to 50%, which are made available from international lending agencies like World Bank.

The assets so created are transferred to operating companies, with public private participation, for a long period say 30 years, who have right to toll revenue and responsibility for loan repayment. These companies have monopoly rights over future road development in the area. After the concession period, the assets will be transferred back to the parent department, who constructed the road.

Ok my point is very clear, that there is no previous history of road development fully private sector. The roads are in public sector in developed countries. Malaysia and China are the two countries where extensive private road net works exist. In Malaysia as we have seen, the Government transferred 309 km of NSE that were either already completed or under construction, and the existing toll-collecting sections of Federal Highways 1 and 2 extending 61 km to the private road company under the terms of the concession. The concessionaire was obligated to construct the remaining 462 km of NSE and the 35 km New Klang Valley Expressway from Kuala Lumpur to the coast, and to make improvements to 15 km of Federal Highway Route 2!!

Similarly in China Government departments initially executed the expressway projects and the assets were transferred to public-private joint holding companies without loss profit audit of the parent company. So the construction of infrastructure like Expressway should necessarily be a Government business. Unless there is tremendous political will and dedication, such projects will remain forever, as rightly put by Mr. Pramod Prasanth, “ something to dream about and to get excited about by our youth”

It was very good discussion anyway. I will ask RBDCK to post the abstract of discussions in their open forum.

With best regards,

Simon Sam. simonsam@yahoo.co.uk

One aspect of employment generation of such infrasturctural projects is the fact that ­ most of the 6000 Cr. Will be spend locally ­ for land acquisition ­ employment of both skilled and semi-skilled ppl. And all this would generate income ­ which would lead to substantial increase in the secondary and tertiary sectors. This chain effect which is very visible in the IT industry ­ where most of the employees have very high disposable income ­ which is leading them to spend higher and thus initiate a chain action on the secondary and tertiary sectors.

We in Kerala haven¹t had such mega investment for long time now. But it will be interesting to see how the area around the new international airport in Kochi has developed. Yes there is some pain for those who had to shift ­but look at the way the area is developing. And now if we extrapolates that to across kerala ­ you can see what I am getting at. And please don¹t think that the only things that can develop are hotels, much more ­ industries ­manufacturing ­ service and so on.

This is apart from the direct positive effects of having good transportation facility that will cause new investments to flow into kerala. If you ask me, there is no better place than Kerala for the creative service industry including IT, Advertising etc! And this is precisely what key industry leaders are telling. And as I wrote in one previous email, if we can generate and focus the energy of the youth in some constructive areas ­ the problems related to trade unions will fade away and we will slowly move towards being a high performance economy. We are lucky in that we are already socially developed. So we need to focus clearly on economic aspects now.

Just to answer Gopinathan¹s thoughts, basically the EH project is in a way improving of the system already in place ­ I don¹t see it as reinvention of the wheel ­ when you sit to improve existing processes (am talking from my personal experience now ­ business processes), very often you realise that it is more cost effective and optimum to actually start something from scratch. Same I can imagine is the case here. Most of our existing NHs are more like city roads ­ roads going through towns and vilages. Such roads are not going to become redundant once EH comes up. It is going to remain an important part of the transportation artery.

And also it might be interesting to know that Switzerland, with a similar topology like kerala, one can cross the country in about 3 and half hours by car. And of course by trains (and of course on time 🙂 ). That¹s the kind of situation that we should envisage for kerala. Being able to travel from Kozhikode to Tvm and back the same day! So that both can be connected much more and lead to increased economic and social activity.

Have a good weekend

Pramod Prasanth <pramod@hispeed.ch>

From: rvgmenon@vsnl.com [mailto:rvgmenon@vsnl.com]

To: kerala-thoughts@yahoogroups.com

Dear All,

Forgive me for being a late entrant into the discussion.
Nobody denies the need for improving the travel infrastructure in Kerala. But what are the priorities?
1. Double line Rail Link from north to south with modernised signalling systems so that we can have a chain of local passenger trains and express trains at a frequency of minutes, as in Mumbaii.
2. Bringing NH 17 and NH 47 to real National Highway standards, viz., 4 lane divided highway, with by-passes for all towns. This is not impossible. They have already achieved it for the modt difficult stretch – Alwaye to Chertallay. This will facilitate an average road speed of 70 to 80 kmph, quite reasonable for India. The official limit for Mumbaii – Pune Expressway is only 80 kmph.
3. Widening the city roads and developing ring roads where ever necessary.
4. Improving the existing State Highways and networking them with National Highwys.
What is preventing this from happening?

How can we believe that people who can not do these things efficiently will build the proposed Super Highway in record time?
In fact, my fear is that if this new super project is undertaken, it will torpedo the earlier suggested steps.
Let me explain.
If the investment of Rs 6400 crores is to be profitable, it should yield a return of at least 1600 crores per year. This will require that all the vehicles in Kerala should patronise this superhighway and abandon the NH 17 & 47, which really run parallel to it. The highway lobby will see to it that these highways are not developed or kept in good shape. The government will also cater to their interests because it wants to show that it is investor friendly (and not people friendly!). This is evident from what happened to the Mattancherry Toll Bridge. This is the problem with BOT contracts and privatisation of infrastructure.
Such things are too important to be left to profiteerers.

If it is so important, let the government do it and collect extra taxes. But it is not, repeat, NOT, the priority as far as the transport development scenario of Kerala is concerned.

RVG Menon

We have already seen in this forum that the proposed Express highway will not solve the problems which it claims to solve. (There are two three problems which can be solved by EH, but cost is not reasonable. This is a controversy now. We can take this later).

Meanwhile let us divert our attention to RVG’s suggestions. It would be great if you guys compare his suggestions with EH or try to evaluate his suggestions as a solution to the problems discussed earlier. We can see which is better and advocate for the better one.

Regards nazilin

Sorry Nazilin,
Despite a very valid email from RVG Menon, I am still not convinced by anythign mentioned in this group that EH is not something not worth considering.

If Kerala needs to go beyond what it is today – and take advantage of the high social standards – we need to take some risks and develop some projects like EH, a good power plant serving not just Kerala’s needs for the next 25 years, but also that of our neighbors, and developing couple of institutes that can beat the IITs and the IIMs and the IIScs and the IIStatistics and TIFS etc….

If we dont come up with few of these in the next 2-3 years, we might find it extremely difficult to sustain our social standards – and also to make it economically feasible and attrractive to bring back thousands of hapless Keralities struggling it out in places like Gulf.

At microscopic look at EH and other projects will certainly show lots of issues, but that is the risk we have to take. Most certainly it should not for example clear away silent valley or something like that – but there can be no doubt we need such projects if we have to develop.

Pramod pramod@hispeed.ch

Spread of information has placed the world at our fingertips. So when we are trying to find answer to any problem, we need not start from the scratch, need not go through various stages of trial and error. Knowledge could be acquired from the experiences of the many nations that have already passed through these stages of development. From their experiences we should endeavor to acquire the underlying principles and theoretical knowledge that can then be applied appropriately to our own specific case. For example in transport sector, all the developed countries passed various phases of road development by way of constructing bypasses and again bypasses to bypasses before the middle of 19 century (The model advocated by RVG Menon). During the early second half of 19-century these countries embarked on large scale expressway development, which proved as a sustainable solution to the growing traffic problems. That is exactly what China did in early 1980s by launching the NTHS (35000 km of Expressways) project and they succeeded in a great extent.

This type of long term planning is essential for the sustained economic growth , mainly in the services sector, which has the great potential for creating new employment opportunities. Why should we think within the Sahya and Arabian Sea? Let us think big, dream big and act in a big way.

With best Regards,
Simon Sam. simonsamko@yahoo.co.uk